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About CLIMAR 

CLIMAR stands for "Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities". It brings together five partners in an attempt to develop an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario's/measures as a response to climate induced impacts, and this for the North Sea environment. Five research teams (MUMM, Ecolas, Flanders Hydraulics Research, ILVO-Fisheries and Maritime Institute) will cooperate during the coming four years (2006-2009) in order to work out the scope of the project. The CLIMAR-project is financed by the SSD-research action of  the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office.

Objectives

 The objectives of the research proposal can be synthesized as follows:

  • Definition and modeling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc..
  • Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts for both the marine ecosystem and related socio-economic activities:
  • Identification and classification of secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities;
  • Case study – Coastal flooding: modeling of the climate induced secondary impacts related to coastal flooding;
  • Case study – Fisheries sector: assessment of the climate induced impacts on the fisheries sector.
  • Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures for both case-studies and using these for extrapolation towards the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities.
  • Development of an evaluation framework — based on both case studies — to asses the effectiveness of the identified adaptation scenario’s/measures for each specific marine activity.
  • Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies, focusing on the embedding of these strategies in the global climate change policy, their practical integration in the current policy and legislative framework and possible implementation problems.
  • Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.

Background

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that climate change is a serious global threat which requires an urgent global response, and that climate change is driven by human activity. The IPPC Report (2007) states that sea levels will rise by 3.1 cm every decade; the oceans have warmed to a depth of 3 km; Arctic summer sea-ice is likely to disappear in the second half of this century; up to 40% of species could face extinction; weather patterns will become more extreme; for example hurricanes and storms will become more intense. These changes have the potential to cause serious ecologic and socio-economic impacts at different levels.

The North Sea Ecosystem is characterized by high productivity and highly diversified habitats but also by heavy ship traffic, intensive fishery, tourism, a number of offshore activities such as oil and gas extraction, the presence of cables and pipelines, sand and gravel extraction, dredging activities, and in the near future, the presence of wind turbine parks. This intensive use has as a consequence that the vulnerability of the ecological, social and economic community formed by the North Sea is high (in terms of risk on damage) for climate change. This calls for a sustainable approach when addressing climate change issues in our North Sea.

While preventive source measures such as cutting greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to tackle the problem at long term, meanwhile adaptive measures are necessary to cope with the primary and secondary impacts of climate change in the North Sea. Furthermore, instruments are needed that can evaluate the adaptation measures on their sustainability, their impact on marine activities and their relation with preventive measures and sectoral policies. Clearly a research effort is needed to determine and evaluate in detail (as well in quantitative determination of effects as in geographical scale) the effects and possible adaptation scenario’s in the North Sea.

Methodology

Research and modeling will be carried out to differentiate the primary impacts of climate change from the natural evolution at the North Sea scale. These primary impacts include sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, erosion, temperature changes, salinity, etc.

Then secondary impacts of climate change both on the ecological system of the North Sea as well as on social-economic activities (fisheries, transport & harbor, dredging, risk for flooding, wind energy, etc.) will be assessed. Two extensive case-studies (coastal flooding, fisheries sector) have high extrapolation potential towards the global North Sea environment. Adaptive measures will be formulated both for the ecosystem as well as for the other marine activities.

Based on in-depth application for the two above mentioned case-studies, an evaluation tool will be developed to assess the impact of these measures according to the principles of sustainable development. This evaluation framework will be developed to assess the value of the scenarios for each specific marine sector. The evaluation tool scores both economical, ecological and social merits and damages of the adaptation strategy. Hence the adaptation strategies have to undergo a sustainability test. Adaptation measures against climate change are rarely “stand-alone” environmental measures and therefore the involvement of several other policy sectors on different levels is often required. Hence the adaptive measures will be confronted with the global policy and legal picture (adaptive versus preventive climate change measures, adaptive measures versus sectoral policy plans, etc.). As for many measures related to sustainable development, the success of the implementation of adaptive strategies will depend on the understanding by the civil society and private organizations of the importance of these strategies, establishing the need to take this aspect of public participation (endusers) into account during the study from the beginning.

Based on both case studies on the one hand and the parallel integrated assessment and policy & legal evaluation on the other hand, recommendations will be formulated towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities. It is clear that this project will provide a valuable output for climate change policy for the North Sea. This output will consist both of practical tools (modelling, assessment) as well as quantified results and applications.

Activities

Overview of CLIMAR activities:

  • Klimaatlezingen - Thursday 25 March 2010, Koksijde, Belgium (language: Dutch)

Partners

The project will be driven by a close interaction between the following partners:

Endusers

To secure the project finally leads to an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario's/measures as a response to climate induced impacts on the North Sea, which is supported by a wide board of policy makers and managers, a diverse team of governmental and non-governmental end-users will regularly meet throughout the project and help to obtain a useful tool in integrated marine management.

The users committee of CLIMAR exists out of seven institutions and research groups:

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